Economic recovery continues along a bumpy path. In this month’s economic outlook report, IPC’s Chief Economist Shawn DuBravac offers five key observations:

1.           Global demand remains strong, but we are starting to see some early signs that demand might be slowing.

2.           Even with demand slowing, backorders remain high and inventories remain low which should keep manufacturers busy for the foreseeable future.

3.           Stimulus, both fiscal and monetary, is waning which will be a headwind on spending.

4.           Prices remain high and will move inversely to demand, but money supply is up significantly suggesting prices will likely remain elevated into next year.

5.           COVID has become a sledgehammer to confidence.

In addition to observations from Shawn DuBravac, you will also find U.S. and European data on economic growth, employment, consumer sentiment, manufacturers’ sentiment (PMI), manufacturing capacity utilization and end markets for electronics.

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IPC announced today the July 2021 findings from its North American Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.42.

Total North American EMS shipments in July 2021 were down 2.9 percent compared to the same month last year. Compared to the preceding month, July shipments fell 26.3 percent.

EMS bookings in July rose 1.7 percent year-over-year but fell 30.6 percent from the previous month.

“The electronics industry continues to be bogged down by supply chain disruptions,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist. “Raw material lead times remain long and shortages are hindering production and delaying shipments.”

View chart in pdf format

Detailed Data Available

Companies that participate in IPC’s North American EMS Statistical Program have access to detailed findings on EMS sales growth by type of production and company size tier, order growth and backlogs by company size tier, vertical market growth, the EMS book-to-bill ratio, 3-month and 12-month sales outlooks, and other timely data.

Interpreting the Data

The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to twelve months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse.

Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.

IPC’s monthly EMS industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of assembly equipment manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the EMS book-to-bill ratio by the end of each month.

IPC announced today the July 2021 findings from its North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program. The book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.29.

Total North American PCB shipments in July 2021 were up 7.3 percent compared to the same month last year. Compared to the preceding month, July shipments fell 15.8 percent.

PCB year-to-date bookings in July were up 18.6 percent compared to last year. Bookings in July fell 4.3 percent from the previous month.

"The North American PCB sector continues to see strong demand, but supply chain shortages are slowing shipments, leading to a growing backlog,” said Shawn DuBravac, IPC’s chief economist. “The book-to-bill of 1.29 is a historic high, going back to the start of the IPC PCB report in 1991."

View charts in pdf format

Detailed Data Available

Companies that participate in IPC’s North American PCB Statistical Program have access to detailed findings on rigid PCB and flexible circuit sales and orders, including separate rigid and flex book-to-bill ratios, growth trends by product types and company size tiers, demand for prototypes, sales growth to military and medical markets, and other timely data.

Interpreting the Data

The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to twelve months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse.

Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.

IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid PCB and flexible circuit manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB book-to-bill ratio by the end of each month.