North American PCB Sales Decline, Following Negative Order Growth
IPC announced today the July 2019 findings from its North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program. Sales growth in July turned negative, following order growth into negative territory. The book-to-bill ratio remained at parity (1.00).
Total North American PCB shipments in July 2019 were down 5.3 percent compared to the same month last year. Year-to-date sales growth as of July remained positive at 8.3 percent. Compared to the preceding month, July shipments decreased 23.1 percent.
PCB bookings in July decreased 4.3 percent year-over-year, bringing year-to-date order growth down to a positive 1.2 percent. Bookings in July were down 17.8 percent from the previous month.
“Year-on-year declines in orders in seven of the last 12 months are taking a toll on sales growth in the North American PCB industry,” said Sharon Starr, IPC’s director of market research. “Sales growth has slowed in recent months and dipped into negative territory in July. The slowdown is reflected in the book-to-bill ratio, which has hovered around 1.00 in the last five months. This indicates the probability of flattening sales growth in the second half of the year.”
Note: The January 2019 ratio has been revised since its original publication due to updated data from statistical program participants.
Note: The November 2018, January 2019 and June 2019 growth rates have been revised since their original publication due to updated data from statistical program participants.
Detailed Data Available
The third-quarter 2019 edition of IPC’s North American PCB Market Report, containing detailed data from IPC’s PCB Statistical Program, will be published by mid-November. The quarterly report presents detailed findings on rigid PCB and flexible circuit sales and orders, including separate rigid and flex book-to-bill ratios, growth trends by product types and company size tiers, demand for prototypes, sales growth to military and medical markets, and other timely data. This report is available free to current participants in IPC’s PCB Statistical Program and by subscription to others. PCB companies that are IPC members doing business in North America are invited to contact marketresearch@ipc.org for information about participating. More information about this report can be found at www.ipc.org/market-research-reports.
Interpreting the Data
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next three to twelve months. A ratio of less than 1.00 indicates the reverse.
Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they reflect seasonal effects and short-term volatility. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month might not be significant unless a trend of more than three consecutive months is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in both bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.
IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics are based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid PCB and flexible circuit manufacturers selling in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB book-to-bill ratio at the end of each month. Statistics for the current month are normally available in the last week of the following month.