IPC Releases PCB Industry Results for October 2009
BANNOCKBURN, Ill., USA, November 24, 2009 — IPC — IPC — Association Connecting Electronics Industries® announced today the October findings from its monthly North American Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Statistical Program.
PCB Industry Growth Rates and Book-to-Bill Ratios Announced
Rigid PCB shipments declined 14.0 percent and bookings were down 2.1 percent in October 2009 from October 2008. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments were down 26.0 percent and bookings fell by 22.7 percent. Compared to the previous month, rigid PCB shipments declined 7.8 percent and rigid bookings decreased 16.2 percent. The book-to-bill ratio for the North American rigid PCB industry in October 2009 increased slightly to 1.10.
Flexible circuit shipments in October 2009 went up 4.3 percent and bookings decreased 2.6 percent compared to October 2008. Year to date, flexible circuit shipments were down 0.9 percent and bookings were down 4.7 percent. Compared to the previous month, flexible circuit shipments went down 14.1 percent and flex bookings fell by 30.9 percent. The North American flexible circuit book-to-bill ratio in October 2009 climbed to 1.00.
For rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined, industry shipments in October 2009 decreased 12.8 percent from October 2008 and orders booked decreased 2.1 percent from October 2008. Year to date, combined industry shipments were down 24.4 percent and bookings were down 21.5 percent. Compared to the previous month, combined industry shipments for October 2009 decreased 8.3 percent and bookings went down 17.4 percent. The combined (rigid and flex) industry book-to-bill ratio in October 2009 reached 1.09.
“Although year-on-year growth rates are still mostly negative, we can see a positive growth trend in North American PCB sales and orders compared to most earlier months in 2009,” said IPC President Denny McGuirk. “Declines in sales from September to October of this year reflect a seasonal trend that we typically see at the beginning of a new quarter,” he added. “The overall trend, however, is upward and that is also reflected in the book-to-bill ratio, which has remained high for the past six months.”
for all the charts in PDF )
The book-to-bill ratios are calculated by dividing the value of orders booked over the past three months by the value of sales billed during the same period from companies in IPC’s survey sample. A ratio of more than 1.00 suggests that current demand is ahead of supply, which is a positive indicator for sales growth over the next two to six months.
for all the charts in PDF)
Book-to-bill ratios and growth rates for rigid PCBs and flexible circuits combined are heavily affected by the rigid PCB segment. Rigid PCBs represent an estimated 91 percent of the current PCB industry in North America, according to IPC’s World PCB Production and Laminate Market Report.
The Role of Domestic Production
IPC’s monthly survey of the North American PCB industry tracks bookings and shipments from U.S. and Canadian facilities, which provide indicators of regional demand. These numbers do not measure U.S. and Canadian PCB production. To track regional production trends, however, IPC asks survey participants for the percent of their reported shipments that were produced domestically (i.e., in the USA or Canada). In October 2009, 87 percent of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 87 percent of rigid PCB and 89 percent of flexible circuit shipments in October by IPC survey participants. These numbers are significantly affected by the mix of companies in IPC’s survey sample, which may change slightly in January, but are kept constant through the calendar year.
Bare Circuits Versus Assembly
Flexible circuit sales typically include value-added services such as assembly, in addition to the bare flex circuits. In October, the flexible circuit manufacturers in IPC’s survey sample indicated that bare circuits accounted for approximately 76 percent of their shipment value reported for the month. Assembly and other services make up a large and growing segment of flexible circuit producers’ businesses. This figure is also sensitive to changes in the survey sample, which may occur at the beginning of each calendar year.
Interpreting the Data
Year-on-year and year-to-date growth rates provide the most meaningful view of industry growth. Month-to-month comparisons should be made with caution as they may reflect cyclical effects. Because bookings tend to be more volatile than shipments, changes in the book-to-bill ratios from month to month may not be significant unless a trend of three consecutive months or more is apparent. It is also important to consider changes in bookings and shipments to understand what is driving changes in the book-to-bill ratio.
The information in IPC’s monthly PCB industry statistics is based on data provided by a representative sample of both rigid and flexible PCB manufacturers in the USA and Canada. IPC publishes the PCB Book-to-Bill Ratio and the PCB Statistical Program Report each month. Statistics for the previous month are not available until the last week of the following month.
Sharon Starr, IPC Director of Market Research
P: +1 847-597-2817
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IPC (www.IPC.org) is a global trade association based in Bannockburn, Ill., dedicated to the competitive excellence and financial success of its 2,700 member companies which represent all facets of the electronic interconnect industry, including design, printed circuit board manufacturing and electronics assembly. As a member-driven organization and leading source for industry standards, training, market research and public policy advocacy, IPC supports programs to meet the needs of an estimated $1.5 trillion global electronics industry. IPC maintains additional offices in Taos, N.M.; Arlington, Va.; Garden Grove, Calif.; Stockholm, Sweden; and Shanghai, China.